Item 1A. Risk Factors
Our business is subject to many risks. Set forth below are the material risks we face. Risks are listed in the categories where they primarily apply, but other categories may also apply.
Competitive and Reputational Risks
If we are unable to positively differentiate ourselves from other retailers, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
We attempt to differentiate our guest experience through a careful combination of price, merchandise assortment, store environment, convenience, guest service, loyalty programs, and marketing. Our ability to successfully differentiate ourselves depends on many competitive factors, including guest perceptions regarding the safety and cleanliness of our stores, the value and exclusivity of our offerings, our in-stock levels, the effectiveness of our digital channels and fulfillment options, our ability to responsibly source merchandise, and our ability to create a personalized guest experience. If we fail to differentiate our guest experience from our competitors, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
The retail industry's continuing migration to digital channels and multiple fulfillment options for consumers has affected the ways we differentiate from other retailers. Since consumers can quickly comparison shop using digital tools, they may make decisions based solely on price or convenience, which could limit our ability to differentiate from our competitors. In addition, providing multiple fulfillment options and implementing new technology is complex, costly, and may not meet our guests’ expectations. If we are unable to offset the increased costs of new technology and expanded fulfillment options with improved performance or efficiencies, our results of operations could be adversely affected. To remain competitive, we must anticipate and adapt to developments and offerings by other retailers. Consumers may also use third-party channels or devices to initiate shopping searches and place orders, which could make us dependent on the capabilities and search algorithms of those third parties to reach those consumers. Any difficulties in executing our differentiation efforts could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
If we do not anticipate and respond quickly to changing consumer preferences, our results of operations and financial condition could suffer.
A large part of our business is dependent on our ability to make trend-right decisions in a broad range of merchandise categories. If we do not predict and quickly respond to changing consumer preferences and spending patterns, we may experience lower sales, spoilage, and increased inventory markdowns, which could adversely affect our results of operations. Our ability to predict and adapt to changing consumer preferences depends on many factors, including obtaining accurate and relevant data on guest preferences, emphasizing relevant merchandise categories, effectively managing our inventory levels, and implementing competitive and effective pricing and promotion strategies. We have not always been able to predict rapid changes in consumer preferences and spending patterns, including those that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has previously resulted in insufficient or excess inventory, increased costs, and adverse impacts on our results of operations. If we are unable to effectively adapt to future changes in consumer preferences and spending patterns, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Our continued success is dependent on positive perceptions of Target which, if eroded, could adversely affect our business and our relationships with our guests and team members.
We believe that one of the reasons our shareholders, guests, team members, and vendors choose Target is the positive reputation we have built over many years for serving those constituencies and the communities in which we operate. To be successful in the future, we must continue to preserve Target's reputation. Our reputation is largely based on perceptions. It may be difficult to address negative publicity across media channels, regardless of whether it is accurate. Negative incidents involving us, our workforce, or others with whom we do business could quickly erode trust and confidence and result in consumer boycotts, workforce unrest or walkouts, government investigations, and litigation. Negative reputational incidents or negative perceptions of us could adversely affect our business and results of operations, including through lower sales, the termination of business relationships, loss of new store and development opportunities, and team member retention and recruiting difficulties.
In addition, stakeholder expectations regarding environmental, social, and governance matters continue to evolve and are not uniform. We have established, and may continue to establish, various goals and initiatives on these matters, including with respect to diversity, equity, and inclusion topics. We cannot guarantee that we will achieve these goals and initiatives. Any failure, or perceived failure, by us to achieve these goals and initiatives or to otherwise meet evolving and varied stakeholder expectations could adversely affect our reputation and result in legal and regulatory proceedings against us. Any of these outcomes could negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition.
Reputational harm can also occur indirectly through companies with whom we do business. We have relationships with a variety of other companies, including Apple, CVS, Disney, Levi’s, Starbucks, and Ulta Beauty. If our guests have negative experiences with or view unfavorably any of the companies with whom we have relationships, it could cause them to stop shopping with us.
If we are unable to successfully develop, source, and market our owned and exclusive brand products, our results of operations could be adversely affected.
Our owned and exclusive brand products represent approximately one third of our overall sales and generally carry higher margins than equivalent national brand products. If we are unable to successfully develop, source, and market our owned and exclusive brands, or if we are unable to successfully protect our related intellectual property rights, our results of operations could be adversely affected. In addition, our reliance on owned and exclusive brand products may also amplify other risks discussed in this Item 1A, Risk Factors, because many of these products are imported and we are more involved in the development and sourcing of those products. For example, owned brand products involve greater responsible sourcing risk in the selection of vendors, which can exacerbate reputational risk. In addition, owned brand products generally require longer lead times between order placement and product delivery and require us to take ownership of those products earlier in the supply chain. This exposes us to enhanced risks of supply chain disruptions and changing consumer preferences, which could adversely affect our results of operations.
If we are unable to protect against inventory shrink, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Our business depends on our ability to effectively manage our inventory. We have historically experienced loss of inventory (also called shrink) due to damage, theft (including from organized retail crime), and other causes. We continue to experience elevated levels of inventory shrink relative to historical levels, which have adversely affected, and could continue to adversely affect, our results of operations and financial condition. To protect against rising inventory shrink, we have taken, and may continue to take, certain operational and strategic actions that could adversely affect our reputation, guest experience, and results of operations. In addition, sustained high rates of inventory shrink at certain stores could impact the profitability of those stores and result in the impairment of long-term assets.
Investments and Infrastructure Risks
If our capital investments do not achieve appropriate returns, our competitive position, results of operations, and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Our business depends, in part, on our ability to remodel existing stores and build new stores in a manner that achieves appropriate returns on our capital investment. When building new stores, we compete with other retailers and businesses for suitable locations for our stores. Pursuing the wrong remodel or new store opportunities and any delays, cost increases, or other difficulties related to those projects could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
We are making, and expect to continue to make, significant investments in technology and supply chain infrastructure. The effectiveness of these investments can be less predictable than remodeling or building new stores, and might not provide the anticipated benefits, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. For example, our stores-as-hubs strategy depends on adequate replenishment facilities to receive, store, and move inventory to stores on a timely basis. Underestimating our replenishment capacity needs could result in lower in-stock levels or increased costs for temporary storage. Conversely, overestimating replenishment capacity needs could result in inefficient deployment of capital. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
A significant disruption in our computing and information systems and our inability to adequately maintain and update those systems could adversely affect our operations and negatively affect our guests.
We rely extensively on computing and information systems throughout our business. We also rely on continued and unimpeded access to the Internet to use our systems. Our systems are subject to possible damage or interruption from many events, including power outages, telecommunications failures, malicious attacks, security breaches, and implementation errors. If our systems are damaged or disrupted, we may incur substantial costs, experience data loss or theft, and be unable to manage inventories or process guest transactions, which could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition. For example, in the past, we have experienced disruptions in our point-of-sale system that prevented our ability to process debit or credit transactions, which negatively impacted some guests’ experiences and generated negative publicity. We continually invest to maintain and update our systems, but implementing significant changes increases the risk of system disruption. Problems and interruptions associated with implementing technology initiatives could adversely affect our operational efficiency and negatively impact our guests and their confidence in us.
Information Security, Cybersecurity, and Data Privacy Risks
If our efforts to maintain information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy are unsuccessful or if we are unable to meet increasingly demanding regulatory requirements, our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition could be adversely affected.
We regularly receive and store information about our guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties. We have programs in place to detect, contain, and respond to data security incidents. However, we may be unable to anticipate security incidents or implement adequate preventive measures. In addition, hardware or software that we develop or obtain from third parties may contain defects that could compromise information security, cybersecurity, or data privacy. Unauthorized parties may also attempt to gain access to our systems or facilities, or those of third parties with whom we do business, through fraud, deception, or other bad acts. Although we conduct regular training as part of our information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy efforts, that training may not be completely effective in preventing successful attacks.
Our only significant data security incident was a data breach that occurred in 2013 and went undetected for several weeks. The 2013 data breach adversely affected our reputation and results of operations. Both we and our vendors have experienced data security incidents since that data breach; however, to date, these other incidents have not been material to our results of operations. Based on the prominence and notoriety of our prior significant data breach, additional data security incidents could draw greater scrutiny. If we, our vendors, or other third parties with whom we do business experience additional significant data security incidents or fail to detect and appropriately respond to significant incidents, we could be exposed to costly government enforcement actions and private litigation. In addition, our guests could lose confidence in our ability to protect their information, stop using our RedCards or loyalty programs, or stop shopping with us altogether, which could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
The legal and regulatory environment regarding information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy is dynamic and has strict requirements for using and treating personal data. Complying with current or contemplated data protection laws and regulations, or any failure to comply, could cause us to incur substantial costs, require changes to our business practices, and expose us to litigation and regulatory risks, each of which could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
Supply Chain and Third-Party Risks
Changes in our relationships with our vendors, changes in tax or trade policy, interruptions in our operations or supply chain, and increased commodity or supply chain costs could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
We are dependent on our vendors, including common carriers, to supply merchandise to our distribution centers, stores, and guests. If our replenishment and fulfillment network does not operate properly, if a vendor fails to deliver on its commitments, or if common carriers have difficulty providing capacity to meet demands for their services like they experienced in recent years, we could experience merchandise out-of-stocks, delays in shipping and receiving merchandise, and increased costs, which could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
A large portion of the merchandise that we offer is sourced, directly or indirectly, from outside the U.S., with China as our single largest source. Any major changes in tax or trade policy between the U.S. and countries from which we source merchandise, such as the imposition of additional tariffs or duties on imported products, could require us to take certain actions, including raising prices on products we sell and seeking alternative sources of supply from vendors in other countries. Any of these actions could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
Political or financial instability, currency fluctuations, the outbreak of pandemics or other illnesses, labor shortages, labor unrest or strikes, transport capacity and costs, inflation, port security, weather conditions, natural disasters, armed conflicts, or other events that could affect foreign trade are beyond our control and could disrupt our supply of merchandise, increase our costs, and adversely affect our results of operations. For example, there have been periodic closings and ship diversions, labor disputes, and congestion disrupting U.S. ports, including in California where we receive a significant portion of the products we source from outside the U.S. We have from time to time made alternative arrangements to continue the flow of inventory as a result of supply chain disruptions in the U.S. and other countries. If these types of events recur, it could increase our costs and adversely affect our supply of inventory. In addition, prices of fuel and other commodities that our supply chain depends on are historically volatile and subject to fluctuations based on a variety of international and domestic factors. Rapid and significant changes in commodity prices, as has occurred in recent years, could further increase our costs and adversely affect our results of operations.
If services we obtain from third parties are unavailable or fail to meet our standards, our reputation and results of operations could be adversely affected.
We rely on third parties to support our business operations, including portions of our technology infrastructure, digital platforms, replenishment and fulfillment operations, store and supply chain infrastructure, delivery services, guest contact centers, payment processing, and extensions of credit for our RedCard program. If we are unable to contract with third parties having the specialized skills needed to support our operations or if they fail to meet our performance standards, then our reputation and results of operations could be adversely affected.
Legal, Regulatory, Global, and Other External Risks
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, or other similar public health crises, may continue to amplify the risks and uncertainties facing our business.
The long-term impacts of the social, economic, and financial disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the government responses to such disruptions are unknown. In addition, the impact on our business of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, or other similar public health crises, will depend on numerous factors that we cannot accurately predict.
The long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, or other similar public health crises, may also continue to amplify other risks discussed in this Item 1A, Risk Factors, including risks related to macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence and spending, supply chain, information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy, and our workforce, any of which could have a material effect on us. For example, the rise in remote working arrangements by our team members, vendors, and other third parties that began during the COVID-19 pandemic increases the risk of a data security compromise and has amplified our already extensive reliance on computing and information systems and unimpeded Internet access.
Our earnings depend on the state of macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence and spending in the U.S.
Nearly all of our sales are in the U.S., making our results highly dependent on the health of the U.S. economy and U.S. consumer confidence and spending, which can be affected by a variety of factors, including inflation, interest rates, housing prices, unemployment rates, household debt and wage levels, and credit usage. In addition, the interconnected nature of the global economy means that international events such as armed conflicts, geopolitical conflicts, public health crises, energy availability, and market volatility can all affect macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. A deterioration in U.S. macroeconomic conditions or consumer confidence or spending could adversely affect our business in many ways, including slowing sales growth, reducing overall sales, reducing gross margins, and lowering our credit card profit-sharing revenue, each of which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Uncharacteristic or significant weather conditions or natural disasters and the impacts of climate change could adversely affect our results of operations.
Uncharacteristic or significant weather conditions, including the physical impacts of climate change, can affect consumer shopping patterns, particularly in apparel and seasonal items, which could lead to lower sales or greater than expected markdowns and adversely affect our results of operations. In addition, we have significant operations in certain states where natural disasters are more prevalent. Natural disasters in those states or in other areas where we operate could result in significant physical damage to or closure of one or more of our stores, distribution centers, facilities, or key vendors. In addition, weather conditions, natural disasters, and other catastrophic events in areas where we or our vendors operate, or depend upon for continued operations, could adversely affect the availability and cost of certain products within our supply chain, affect consumer purchasing power, and reduce consumer demand. Any of these events could adversely affect our results of operations.
The long-term effects of global climate change are expected to be widespread and unpredictable. The potential impacts of climate change present a variety of risks. The physical effects of climate change, such as extreme weather conditions, drought, and rising sea levels, could adversely affect our results of operations, including by increasing our energy costs, disrupting our supply chain, negatively impacting our workforce, damaging our stores, distribution centers, and inventory, and threatening the habitability of the locations in which we operate. In addition to physical risks, the potential impacts of climate change also present transition risks, including regulatory and reputational risks. For example, we use commodities and energy inputs in our operations that may face increased regulation due to climate change or other environmental concerns, which could increase our costs. Furthermore, any failure to achieve our goals with respect to reducing our impact on the environment, or perception of a failure to act responsibly with respect to the environment, could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
We rely on a large, global, and changing workforce of team members, contractors, and temporary staffing. If we do not effectively manage our workforce, our labor costs and results of operations could be adversely affected.
With over 400,000 team members, our workforce costs represent our largest operating expense, and our business is dependent on our ability to attract, train, and retain the appropriate mix of qualified team members, contractors, and temporary staffing. Many team members are in entry-level or part-time positions with high turnover rates historically. Our ability to meet our changing labor needs while controlling our costs is subject to external factors such as labor laws and regulations, unemployment levels, prevailing wage rates, benefit costs, changing demographics, and our reputation within the labor market. If we are unable to attract and retain a workforce meeting our needs, our operations, guest service levels, support functions, and competitiveness could suffer and our results of operations could be adversely affected. We are periodically subject to labor organizing efforts and activism, which could negatively impact how we are perceived by team members and our overall reputation. If we become subject to one or more collective bargaining agreements in the future, it could adversely affect our labor costs, how we operate our business, and our results of operations. In addition to our United States operations, we have support offices in India and China, and any extended disruption of our operations in our different locations, whether due to labor difficulties or otherwise, could adversely affect our results of operations.
Failure to address product safety and sourcing concerns could adversely affect our results of operations.
If any of our merchandise offerings do not meet applicable safety standards or Target's or our guests’ expectations regarding safety, supply chain transparency, and responsible sourcing, we could be exposed to legal and reputational risks and our results of operations could be adversely affected. Our vendors must comply with applicable product safety laws, and we are dependent on them to ensure that the products we buy comply with all safety standards. Events that give rise to actual or perceived product safety concerns, including food or drug contamination and product defects, could expose us to government enforcement actions and private litigation and result in costly product recalls and other liabilities. Our sourcing vendors, including any third parties selling through our digital channels, must also meet our expectations across multiple areas of social compliance, including supply chain transparency and responsible sourcing. We have a social compliance audit process that performs audits regularly, but we cannot continuously monitor every vendor, so we are also dependent on our vendors to ensure that the products we buy comply with applicable standards. If we need to seek alternative sources of supply from vendors with whom we have less familiarity, the risk of our standards not being met may increase. Negative guest perceptions regarding the safety and sourcing of the products we sell could harm our reputation and adversely affect our results of operations.
Our failure to comply with applicable laws, or changes in these laws, could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Our business is subject to a wide variety of complex laws and regulations.
Our expenses could increase and our operations could be adversely affected by changes in law or adverse judicial developments involving our workforce, including an employer’s obligation to recognize collective bargaining units, minimum wage requirements, advance scheduling notice requirements, health care or other mandates, the classification of exempt and non-exempt employees, and the classification of workers as either employees or independent contractors. Our Shipt subsidiary is a technology company that connects Shipt members through its online marketplace with a network of independent contractors who select, purchase, and deliver groceries and household essentials ordered from Target and other retailers. The classification of workers as employees or independent contractors, in particular, is an area that is experiencing legal challenges and legislative changes. Our Shipt subsidiary has faced, and continues to face, legal challenges to its worker classification. If, as a result of judicial decisions or legislation, Shipt is required to treat its network of independent contractors as employees, we may experience higher digital fulfillment costs, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Changes in the legal or regulatory environment affecting any other area of our business, including information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy, product safety, or payment methods could cause our expenses to increase and adversely affect our results of operations. In addition, if we fail to comply with other applicable laws and regulations, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and other anti-bribery laws, we could be subject to legal and reputational risks, including government enforcement actions and class action civil litigation, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Financial Risks
Increases in our effective income tax rate could adversely affect our results of operations.
Several factors influence our effective income tax rate, including tax laws and regulations, the related interpretations, and our ability to sustain our reporting positions on examination. Changes in any of those factors could change our effective tax rate, which could adversely affect our net income. In addition, changes in our operations both in and outside of the U.S. may cause greater volatility in our effective tax rate.
If we are unable to access the capital markets or obtain bank credit, our financial condition and results of operations could suffer.
We are dependent on a stable, liquid, and well-functioning financial system to fund our operations and capital investments. Our continued access to financial markets depends on multiple factors including the condition of debt capital markets, our operating performance, and our credit ratings. If rating agencies lower our credit ratings, it could adversely affect our ability to access the debt markets, our cost of funds, and other terms for new debt issuances. Each of the credit rating agencies reviews its rating periodically, and there is no guarantee that our current credit ratings will remain the same. In addition, we use a variety of derivative products to manage our exposure to market risk, principally interest rate fluctuations. Disruptions or turmoil in the financial markets could reduce our ability to fund our operations and capital investments and lead to losses on derivative positions from counterparty failures, which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.